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Today I’m going to teach you about trading on the first green day and how to avoid the consolidation break out and support. Those details are crucial to short setters and they can help you when coming up with a bind strategy or long strategy. Today we’ll also talk about SOLO and SKYS, as those tickers have been the hottest tickers so far this month. So, let’s do a recap of SOLO and SKYS.
As you can see on SKYS, there’s a little bit of pushing in the premarket but later in the day the stock spikes. Usually spikes like this cause the premarket high to become the support. Whenever it breaks out like this, a lot of people like to short into spikes, especially when the stock has these curved spikes because that means the parabolic is unlikely to come back down. I don’t like to short into those spikes because I know the parabolic won’t come back down. Instead, I wait for them to consolidate because that is more profitable.
Most Common Patterns
These are the most common first green day patterns:
- Stocks pull back
- They consolidate (sometimes for the entire day)
- They crack around 2:30 p.m. (And when they crack at that time, you can never tell if they are going to gap down or gap up in the second day)
What Happens If the Support Doesn’t Crack
As you can see in this chart, there’s a two-layer support right around $1.00. One layer is at 80 cents and the other is at $1.00, which means it is unlikely that the stock will crack. So, if you are in this situation where you are shorting overnight and holding until the next day, you won’t get a good reward because the support is too strong. Even if the support breaks, there’s no way of knowing if it’s going to gap up or gap down. If the ticker gets more volume than the first green day – let’s say it gets 50 million volume and starts breaking around $1.50 – you won’t gain anything.
Now, this SOLO ticker will spike around 15 million market cap. Once it spikes, it won’t come back down if it is between 150-300 million. It’s also difficult for the stock to drop really quickly; as you can see, the volatility is only there in the morning spikes. Once the volatility risk has gone down, the range begins bouncing back and forth really tightly. Now, if you’re shorting after the first green day, make sure to look at the fading percentage.
Here the stock fades from $5.08 to $4.40 that’s about 60 cents. That’s not good enough to short after the first green day. If you track the average winning percentage on the first red day, it tends to avoid all the tickers above 15 million or 200 million because their base level needs be to a lot lower. For SOLO it spiked from 15 million, which is much higher than lower float. When there’s lower float the cap won’t spike that high, instead it drops really quickly. And that’s the difference between high market cap and low float in SOLO; the higher the market cap, the lower the volatility and the tighter the range will be.
That’s all the tips I have for this week, they should be helpful in making future trades. That’s all for now, for more helpful tips and tricks check out my YouTube channel, and click here to find out how I turned $27,000 into $3,000,000 before the age of 24.